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| One size that does not fit all
- September 17 2008 |
Sent to the Solihull Times and Sutton Coldfield News
The Euro, an EU superstate project, is shaky because
currency sharing is difficult for states with differing
finances, standards of living, economic cycles and productivity.
"Convergence" by cash transfers ("structural
funds") and restricting government budgets ("stability
pact") failed. Germany complied but Italian debt
is 106% of GDP (stability pact max 60%!). Greece and
Spain have trade deficits of 13% and 10% of GDP reflecting
cheap easy borrowings to import goods. Now Italians borrow
cheaply because their debt is in euros! The glue is coming
unstuck.
So Italians pay 0.5% higher for debts than Germans who
stop lending to Spanish. Banks stop lending to banks,
questioning their assets. Politicians give taxpayers
money to shore up private debts, compromising commercial
banks by this cheap lending. The taxpayer bears the risk,
but worse, on the continent the eurozone currency spreads
this burden e.g. ECB (European Central Bank) takes on
Spanish euro mortgage debt while their construction industry
flops!
South euro flagging economies want the ECB to reduce
interest rates to allow higher euro inflation to write
down their debts. Germans want the opposite showing concern
that current euro inflation of over 3% is above its 2%
target.
German backed ECB inflation controls may cause certain
countries to leave the euro to re-establish their own
currencies, allowing their traditional devaluation and
inflation to solve their debts as before.
As UKIP says “One-size does not fit all.” If
you think this ‘heavy’ try the EU controls
on the UK economy!
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